Forex market newbie goes to next level.

 

I have been trading for almost 5 years now starting 2016 on the forex market and I survived without blowing my account. In 2019, I suffered severe losses which I am still recouping but I can say now that this helped me to understand my level of loss acceptance perception what is good account leverage, account load and position size. 

If you planning to start trading forex be aware of the following:

1. Good trading happens with real money. 

2. Bigger account is always better. 100 000 to 200 000 is optimum. (on footnote if one tells you that they can turn 10 000 into million in one year run away. Although is possible it is unsustainable. 

3. Hedging is ok if you don't mind to wait. Sometimes for long. I hedged few positions an year ago and give up right before they run in one direction. Hedging works with trending markets. If market is ranging you hedging might kill you with the fees. Be vigilant and maintain lower sizes. 

4. Try to take a trade per week. Sometimes skip it. What makes you good trader is not how many positions you take but rather how patient you are to enter properly. 

That's it for now. Let your good trades run and hedge bad or cut them off. 

Hedging strategy for long term Forex approach

                                   

Strategy type:
    Long term, between one week and one month period.
Pair:
    USD/CAD (it could be applied to any other pair)
Leverage used:
    50:1
Home currency:
    USD
Account size:
    10 000 USD


Conditions for the strategy:
    As a money management the strategy has to work using no more than 20% of the margin account(this looks low at some point but it will prevent from many frustrations from the beginning). With account size of 10 000USD and 50 leverage this means operational amount will be 500 000 USD. This strategy do not use stop losses. 


As per Oanda and Canada margin usage for this pair is 2.2% of the account so for every unit is calculated by:

10 000 units x USD/USD(1)*margin(2.2%) = 10 000x2.2% = 220USD which  is contrary to the normal 10 000/50 = 200 USD.

In order to keep the rule to use only 20% of our margin that means we can operate with up to 2 000 USD(un-leveraged) or 90 909 units out of 500 000.

How the strategy is supposed to work:

Imagine on February 01, 2015 we open long and short positions with 10 000 units each at this time the pair was 1.26. We also prepare long orders with 10 000 units on 1.27, 1.28, 1.29 and take it on 1.30. In addition we prepare shorts 10 000 on 1.25, 1.24, 1.23 and 1.22 and take profit on 1.21.

How is this unravel:

10 000 units long on 1.26
10 000 units short on 1.26

As we see from the history the pair was wondering around 1.26 for 4 months until April 14, 2015 then with sudden drop it reached 1.19. How much will be our profit in this case and our loss:

10 000 units short from 1.26 to 1.21 is 500 pips x 0.79(1 pip) = 395 USD
10 000 units short from 1.25 to 1.21 is 400 pips x 0.8 = 320 USD
10 000 units short from 1.24 to 1.21 is 300 pips x 0.806 = 241.8 USD
10 000 units short from 1.23 to 1.21 is 200 pips x 0.813 = 163.2 USD
10 000 units short from 1.22 to 1.21 is 100 pips x 0.819 = 81.9 USD

All together we will have 805 USD profit with 395 USD loss. Now I am assuming we will keep 395 long position paper loss and will take out only the profit which will result on May 14 to have 10805 USD account with one open position of -395 USD or margin use of 2.5% usage.

From this point we could start adding to the loosing position if we see opportunity or just wait to become profitable as this happened on July 21 where we’ve had:

10 000 units long from 1.26 to 1.30 is 400 pips x 0.79 = 316 USD
10 000 units long from 1.27 to 1.30 is 300 pips x 0.787 = 236.22 USD
10 000 units short from 1.28 to 1.30 is 200 pips x 0.7812 = 156.24 USD
10 000 units short from 1.29 to 1.30 is 100 pips x 0.775 = 77.5 USD

So far from the long position we accumulated 785 USD with the previous one 1 585 USD which consist of 10% of the initial investment. The money were made from February 01 to July 21 which is 171 days. In addition since Oanda charges for overnight prices:

For the short position from February 01 to May 14 I calculated 2472 hours which resulted in 100 USD fees. For the long position I calculated that 10000 units are held between February 01 and July 21 which is 4104 hours and resulted in -25.15 USD and for the rest between May 14 (when the trend turns) is 30 000 units which resulted in 1656 hours or 30.45USD

All together fees are 155 USD or total profit is 1585 - 155 = 1430 USD

We made 1430 USD out of 10 000 USD which is 14.30% in three months.


Margin usage during the period. During the period we have several open positions with all together 50 000 - 60 000 units.

60000 x 2.2% = 1200 USD 

Out of our 90 909 permissible units we are running only 60 000 or between 10 - 12 % of all the permissible margin of 20% .


Bad scenarios:

What could go bad with this scenario? For example if we have two short positions open and then the trend turns and goes upward to 1.30 in this case we will have two loosing positions which will be:

10 000 units short on 1.26 to 1.30 is 400 pips x 0.739 = - 317 USD
10 000 units short on 1.25 to 1.30 is 500 pips x 0.8 = - 400 USD

This will result in - 717 USD paper loss which could not be executed and can be sustained for long time since it represents only around 7% of your margin and you still have opportunity to exercise opportunities uptrend.

Worst case scenario:

Executing all the trades on one direction (long) without hitting the target 1.30 and returning on 1.26 then we will have around 900 USD paper loss which could be still handled. If we extend the bad scenarios we can assume that short positions on the same time are opened due to some reason and it goes to 1.22 and open all of the short positions and returns back to 1.26. This will result in nine open positions with estimated paper loss 1800 USD. How possible is this to happen?  

Last week preditions and this week.

Last week USDCAD hit 1.257 which was enough for me to close but decided to leave it for now. Unfortunately it returned back to 1.246 in less than a day. Again prediction for next week is 1.26

Two other currencies provided significant gain in the second week of Jan. 2018 and now expectations are to drop significantly. Yes I am speaking about EUR and AUD. According to OANDAs heatmap

there is significant increase of the EUR against majors. The same with AUD.

#FOREX Expectations USDCAD to return back.

Last week I opened several good Long positions on USDCAD pair which were hit by the ridiculous predictions for CAD and USD. The pair sink significantly from 1.28 to 1.23 in almost a day.

However, this week forecast is to return at least to 1.25. This could be seen from:

Its obvious that the long positions will prevail.

Another good currency is JPY which made significant drop last seven days and now is time for return against some of the weak currencies at the moment.

ArcGIS fundamentals certificate.

Ok,... along with trading I decided to take fundamentals of ArcGIS... Well currently I am certified to work and have good base knowledge of this software.

New big changes in my life.

If everything is OK will post here. Keep your fingers crossed!!

Air Quality Management Cerificate.

These days, I got my Air Quality Management Certificate!

Nice video - Lecture about Air pollution monitoring.

I recommend it.....

Lecture Series on Environmental Air Pollution by Prof. Mukesh Sharma
Department of Civil Engineering IIT Kanpur



Besides that I admire prof. Mukesh Sharma for the excellent lecture some of the pictures are not well seen. So you might find them here

http://goo.gl/5y3gj

How to: Be in constant touch with changes on a particular website

Or Automatic website change logs and notification


Recently, (after few years without such tool) I have came to the site www.changedetection.com. It is amaizing utility, where you are able to watch distantly sites without visiting them.

Why I think this piece of internet is so important?

Let see what the site says about himself:
What is ChangeDetection.com?
At your request, we monitor any website page for text changes. If a change is detected we send you a notification email. We also maintain a log of recent changes to the page and allow you to see the difference between any two versions of the page.

Yes, that site could help you to find job. How? Very easy. Let say that someone wish to apply for any particular company and definitely will be happy to know about any changes in the Careers site. So when position appears there, www.changedetection.com just sent you an e-mail and you could directly visit the targeted site for changes.

Just a simple example how it works. Targeted site is carriers section of Halifax water.
http://www.halifax.ca/hrwc/EmploymentOpportunities.html

First from the main site you should put the web page address and your e-mail, where changedetetion.com will send you warning e-mail with the web site changes.



Step 2 is a little, but a little bit complicated, because you could set up your alert. But nothing strange look the picture below:

At alert name you could choose the name of the alert : for example Employment opportunities at Halifax Water.
Then you could choose how often to be sent alert. I recommend daily. This doesn't mean you will receive alert every day. This mean the site of HW will be checked every day and something appear changedetection.com will send you alert e-mail.
The next is for a sizable changes. Sizable changes are changes bigger than small ones HAHAHAHA! No, actually small changes are changes of the dates and small errors. So check that.
The third one is "only send alert if text is added" - I recommend that. Also you may choose what words to persuade. For example if you need accountant position, then put in the area "accountant". The last two options are not important for me. They are related with sharing and I don't see any reason to check them.
At the end just press Create button.

Another good option of www.changedetection.com is that you are able to create account there. This give you an opportunity to manage your account there:

You could manage all your monitors, recent changes and recent alerts. Currently for example I monitoring 13 pages and continue to increase their number.
Very good option is recent changes, you may see what exactly is changes like here:


So if you wish try this good tool, hopefully it will help you to get hired in the desired company.

How to automatically fill data cells in Excel.

Huh.... I had big problems to fill data cells in Excel for a long time. At time when I wish to fill 200 - 300 cells with same data, I started to dream nightmares. What I am talking about. For example look this table here: and if I wish to continue this table at next 300 rows at the same repeat TSI sample results, but in different order, it will be a nightmare. Spending more than hour of filling this cells with the same results. But I tried something else in Excel. There is a function IF, so you could use it very "widely" in that situation.

Here is the sample: =IF(H6="TSI-V001",993,IF(H6="TSI-V002",1345,IF(H6="TSI-V003",73,IF(H6="TSI-V004",234,IF(H6="TSI-V005",789,IF(H6="TSI-V006",666,IF(H6="TSI-V007",4578,"")))))))


and I put this code in the cell which I would use for results, or bellow mg/ml.

Simple explanation, should be nice I believe: At the beginning we say to the Excel, if H6 cell is filled with TSI-V001 sample then give to the cell where the code is 993, but if there is not such sample, then look for TSI-V002 and if there is a such sample put 1345 mg/ml. And so on..... until the end.


So what will happen if I put TSI-V012? Then the cell will appear empty or blank, because as you could see at the end "......4578,"")))))))", there is a blank space between these two quotes. So that's it......

http://www.magnatune.com/

Really nice place for good music.

Listen that album it is nice. This is a really nice band.




Twisted by Sophia Marie

Good Job search engine all over the world.

Hello few days ago I found really interesting job search engine. The name of this engine is




What is good in this and what is different from the others which I previously know?

Pros:
1. It seems to be very simple to work with this site just look the interface:


To search job you should put the name of the job in the field "What" and in the field "Where" you should put where exactly you need to search it.

2. Why I really like it? Lets start with the phrase

environmental engineer and I need to find such kind of job in Alaska for example. Our search box need to be filed like that:

OK press search and here the returning results

I will try third one
TASO-2817: Environmental Safety and Occupational Health Engineer, Analyst, Subject Matter Expert - Senior Level
and this is the greatest think which I liked in this engine at first look. Actually it brings you directly to the site with the job. No advertisement, no bars around, no registrations. Very easy and simple. The next think which the job searcher should do is to press the button for sending resume.

3. You can setup e-mail alert just press the button:



this menu will appear:



Here you can setup your own alert. Don't forget to check he box to receive the e-mail alert for that kind of jobs.

Cons:

1. I was not so glad to found that I should change the country to search in Canada for example or in Bulgaria. You can't just put in the search field

What : "Janitor"
Where : "Windsor, Ontario"



To do that you should press on the bottom of the page the letters CA. This lead you to the same site with different web address www.job-rapido.ca. I am not sure why the developers used this name but it is a little bit frustrating. I always want to remember simple words. Of course this time I should remember for me www.job-rapido.ca. As you can see there is a lot of other countries and you should decide where to do your job search.


Conclusion:

I can say I like this engine and I will use it often to search into my job search adventures. I recommend you to use it because it is simple.

Prices DealExtreme vs Source.

Interesting. I just watched to find how to connect two network cables. Asking around people tell me that the best source is Source to find "Network Coupler"

What is a network coupler actually. This is a something like this


when you have two RJ-45 wires you could connect them trough this simple device. For example if you have 3 m. cable and another 5 meters cable with RJ-45 jacks you can connect them with this coupler. OK but I found in Source this simple device for 19,99 dollars!!! I think this is a very expensive for a such small part of plastic with two coper wires inside....





Then I just looked around my favorite site for gadgets www.dealextreme.com.
Here the price is a little bit different look:
http://www.dealextreme.com/details.dx/sku.2657


1,13 for 1. Not like 19,99 argh! 20 times more.

OK it is normal to keep my money here I will by this one from Chinese site of course.

Halifax is a beautiful town!

Yes! It is! Here some pictures that I made recently.

Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

I got Canadian immigration visa

Yep!
Yesterday I received visas for me and my family. Actually I have decided to land at Halifax, Nova Scotia and to start my live again.

Which road I shall take?

As I mentoed before I have decide to move my self into Canada. I decided to choose the Federal Skilled Worker program which is provided from the Citizenship and Immigration Canada. I am planing to describe carefully my application procedure here but at first I shall obtain visa.

But my current problem is that I can't decide where to land in Canada. At first I planned to arive in Toronto but now I am a little bit quite sure. Now my eyes looks to Calgary as an one of the beautiful towns of Canada.

I shall decide and I think I have less than three months to do this.

My IELTS Results

Yesterday I received my IELTS results. They looks like I shall stop bloging on English:

Listening: 7
Reading: 7.5
Writing: 5
Speaking: 6

Overall band:6.5

I think this is enough about the Federal Skilled Worker procedure for Canada. I am planing to describe my procedure here. Soon of course.

IELTS today!

Yes! Today I was on IELTS examination. Unfortunately I still can not say why I do this but the exam was very difficult into reading part. Actually there was only few questions with normal answers. All other was TRUE, FALSE or Not Given which unfortunately are not in my company of good questions.

Blogers against Bulgarian government

These days one of the famous Bulgarian bloggers decide to set up on him personal blog a little GoogleBomb. He saw that on the site of the Government missing instructions for the search engines such as Google or Yahoo. These missing instructions are simple – in the hosting directory folder HTML programmer should put and keep a file with name “robots.txt” which contains these two phrases.

User-Agent:*
Disallow:/

He wrote that this means “….if you are the search engine the site tells you – Do not index me!! Get out of here!!!” so if you try to find site of the Bulgarian government through Google it is impossible. Then he has decided to make a simple GoogleBomb. It is easy to make this if you have more than thousand visitors per day and your Google rank is high. He has just put in the blog anchor (link to the webpage of the government) with name провал (failure) and which linked in to the site of Bulgarian government.

Two days after the Bulgarian mass media were filled with news which has been describing how the “hacker” is prepared googlebomb of the Bulgarian government.

Today I said that other blogger took the baton from Yunuz and decide to overthrow the Government. He has decide to put anchor оставка (retirement) in his blog. I think he will have chance to make another GoogleBomb, because the searching machines still not indexing the site of the government. They still not repair the problem with “robots.txt”

Why I wrote this – my only one reason is to keep this in mind and next time when I prepare some page to put this little text file into the main directory. There are no other reasons for this my post.

TOSHIBA - never again !!!

I decide – never will buy TOSHIBA again. It doesn’t matter what kind of device or service – just I’ll keep my money far from this company. I will not purchase anything even than batteries!!!!
This decision of mine is because their “good” warranty support. But what is happen and what lead me to this?
When I was in Canada I found that there are cheaper laptops than Bulgaria. As a fact in Bulgaria TOSHIBA Satellite A300 – 05U01C is near to 900 €. In opposite site of the Earth – Canada the same TOSHIBA Satellite A300 – 05U01C costs only 600 €. Enormous difference of course round 30%. So this difference makes me to take decision to buy this machine from the country of maple leaf. Yes of course when I bought this TOSHIBA Satellite A300 – 05U01C from Staples I have ask them about warranty and also ask TOSHIBA support center about international warranty. They gave me explanation that if something is happen with my TOSHIBA Satellite A300 – 05U01C everything will be OK in Bulgaria.
Everything was OK until January 10, 2009. At this day I have just worked with my laptop when he decides to die. Yes just when I typed some words and the keyboard stopped to work also everything freeze and nothing happens. Just like that. Because I shall go to work I leave it. When I come back at the evening I found it black and without any electricity on it. Immediately I plug it on the electricity but again nothing happens. There was neither battery recharging light or power light flashing. This get me in shock of course because I know how fast work warranty services in my country. But I could do nothing and on the morning I called to the phones given on the TOSHIBA site.


The girl from IMPEX Bulgaria (which is the official distributor of TOSHIBA for BG) explained me that I should send my laptop and original receipt (for evidence!) through courier into Sofia and after repairing they shall return to me with the same courier. I call the sedition company and they took my PC at January 11, 2009. They had delivered it at January 13, 2009 at IMPEX and from this time my long waiting start. Here I have posted print-screen picture of my repairing status and anyone can see how longer it continues.
Between January 13-Th and January 23-Th everyone are able to see that is nothing happens. IMPEX just “require info”. I had been thought that everything will be faster and will run smoothly but NO. I couldn’t understand what is behind “require info”, but I suppose that IMPEX just sent them my bill for confirmation about supported warranty. Unfortunately might be they sent the recipe through some of the fishing trawler to Canada. I just have not other explanation. But I think TOSHIBA should look about this type of communication.
At January 23-th they have received required info and started to apply for part. This part they request from Germany. My GOD I hope that they hadn’t ordered from Canada. It had been took a mounts for delivering. So on the 13-th day from order the part was delivered and I call them when I should expect the delivery of my laptop. Unfortunately again I don’t estimate the situation properly. At February 09, 2009 in the site instead the sentence “Sent to the customer” had just appeared “waiting for part”. AGAIN!!! Now the pcspeakers was burnout. What going on? When everything happened I worked on the battery. How is possible to burn out the main board and speakers. And what if something other is burned out? I shall wait until the end of the century. TOSHIBA support eh?
So I still wait for my laptop and because I have other PC I am able to do my extra job. Expecting from TOSHIBA to repair their stupid Satellite A300 – 05U01C I can loose money and contacts. I shall thank to my old PC desktop station but unfortunately he is a totally immovable.
Now at the end when you decide to buy any TOSHIBA products just keep you in mind my story and if you don’t mind consult about warranty with your local service. You may fall in the same situation. For me I have decide – TOSHIBA NEVER AGAIN even BATERIES.